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Simba vs Stade Malien Bamako — CAF Champions League 2019

Simba
Simba
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Stade Malien Bamako
Stade Malien Bamako
2/14/2026CAF Champions LeagueCAF Champions League · Round 6KMC Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Simba53%
×Draw27%
Stade Malien Bamako20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Simba
1.44
Stade Malien Bamako
0.77

Simba creates 87% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 11 away

creates per match

Simba
1.79
Stade Malien Bamako
0.91

allows per match

Simba
0.63
Stade Malien Bamako
1.09

finishing

Simba+0.00on par
Stade Malien Bamako+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Simba ↓

Stade Malien Bamako →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Simba or draw
80%
Simba or Stade Malien Bamako
73%
Draw or Stade Malien Bamako
47%

Winning margin

Simba wins by 2+
27%
Stade Malien Bamako wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Simba 1+ goals
76%
Simba 2+ goals
42%
Simba 3+ goals
18%
Stade Malien Bamako 1+ goals
54%
Stade Malien Bamako 2+ goals
18%
Stade Malien Bamako 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Simba (draw refunded)
73%
Stade Malien Bamako (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Simba at home — creates 1.79, concedes 0.63 · 24 matches

Stade Malien Bamako away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.09 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Simba attack 1.79 + Stade Malien Bamako defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.44

Stade Malien Bamako attack 0.91 + Simba defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Simba scores more
53%
level
27%
Stade Malien Bamako scores more
20%

Simba at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Simba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

CAF Champions League: Simba 1–0 Stade Malien Bamako

Simba beat Stade Malien Bamako 1-0 in CAF Champions League on February 14, 2026.

The match was played at KMC Stadium in Dar es Salaam.