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Simba vs Nyuki — Ligue 1 2019

Simba
Simba
CANC
00:00
Nyuki
Nyuki
3/29/2020Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 21Stade Manika

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Simba72%
×Draw18%
Nyuki10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Simba
2.13
Nyuki
0.63

Simba creates 238% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 9 away

creates per match

Simba
0.92
Nyuki
0.22

allows per match

Simba
1.03
Nyuki
3.33

finishing

Simba+0.00on par
Nyuki+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Simba ↓

Nyuki →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Simba or draw
90%
Simba or Nyuki
82%
Draw or Nyuki
28%

Winning margin

Simba wins by 2+
47%
Nyuki wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Simba 1+ goals
88%
Simba 2+ goals
63%
Simba 3+ goals
35%
Nyuki 1+ goals
47%
Nyuki 2+ goals
13%
Nyuki 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Simba (draw refunded)
88%
Nyuki (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Simba at home — creates 0.92, concedes 1.03 · 92 matches

Nyuki away — creates 0.22, concedes 3.33 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Simba attack 0.92 + Nyuki defence 3.33 → ÷2 → 2.13

Nyuki attack 0.22 + Simba defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Simba scores more
72%
level
18%
Nyuki scores more
10%

Simba at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Simba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Simba host Nyuki

March 29, 2020: Simba take on Nyuki in Ligue 1. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Simba host Nyuki at Stade Manika.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.