Simba 2–1 Mashujaa: Result & Stats | Ligi kuu Bara

Simba

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Mashujaa

5/2/2025

Ligi kuu Bara · Round 24KMC Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Simba67%

×Draw21%

Mashujaa12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SimbaExpected goals in this matchMashujaa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.85

0.61

Simba

1.85

Mashujaa

0.61

Simba creates 203% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 45 away

2.37

creates per match

0.71

0.52

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Simba

2.37

Mashujaa

0.71

allows per match

Simba

0.52

Mashujaa

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Simba+0.00on par

Mashujaa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Simba ↓

Mashujaa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–15%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–110%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–015%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–16%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Simba or draw

88%

Simba or Mashujaa

79%

Draw or Mashujaa

33%

Winning margin

Simba wins by 2+

40%

Mashujaa wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Simba 1+ goals

84%

Simba 2+ goals

55%

Simba 3+ goals

28%

Mashujaa 1+ goals

46%

Mashujaa 2+ goals

13%

Mashujaa 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Simba (draw refunded)

85%

Mashujaa (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Simba at home — creates 2.37, concedes 0.52 · 111 matches

Mashujaa away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.33 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Simba attack 2.37 + Mashujaa defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.85

Mashujaa attack 0.71 + Simba defence 0.52 → ÷2 → 0.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Simba scores more

67%

level

21%

Mashujaa scores more

12%

Simba at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Simba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff