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Simba vs JKT Tanzania — Ligi kuu Bara 2025

Simba
Simba
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
JKT Tanzania
JKT Tanzania
E. Onana 90+2'
S. Ntibazonkiza 88' (pen)
5/28/2024Ligi kuu BaraLigi kuu Bara · Round 30Benjamin Mkapa National Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Simba65%
×Draw22%
JKT Tanzania12%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Simba
1.78
JKT Tanzania
0.62

Simba creates 187% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 31 away

creates per match

Simba
2.46
JKT Tanzania
0.81

allows per match

Simba
0.43
JKT Tanzania
1.10

finishing

Simba+0.00on par
JKT Tanzania+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Simba ↓

JKT Tanzania →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Simba or draw
88%
Simba or JKT Tanzania
78%
Draw or JKT Tanzania
35%

Winning margin

Simba wins by 2+
38%
JKT Tanzania wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Simba 1+ goals
83%
Simba 2+ goals
53%
Simba 3+ goals
26%
JKT Tanzania 1+ goals
46%
JKT Tanzania 2+ goals
13%
JKT Tanzania 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Simba (draw refunded)
84%
JKT Tanzania (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Simba at home — creates 2.46, concedes 0.43 · 28 matches

JKT Tanzania away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.10 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Simba attack 2.46 + JKT Tanzania defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.78

JKT Tanzania attack 0.81 + Simba defence 0.43 → ÷2 → 0.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Simba scores more
65%
level
22%
JKT Tanzania scores more
12%

Simba at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Simba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

88'
S. NtibazonkizaPenalty
90+2'
E. Onana

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Simba 2 – 0 JKT Tanzania

Simba beat JKT Tanzania 2-0 in Ligi kuu Bara on May 28, 2024.

Goals: S. Ntibazonkiza (88' pen), E. Onana (90+2').

The match was played at Benjamin Mkapa National Stadium in Dar-es-Salaam.