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Simba vs Ihefu — Ligi kuu Bara 2019

Simba
Simba
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Ihefu
Ihefu
10/28/2023Ligi kuu BaraLigi kuu Bara · Round 7Benjamin Mkapa National Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Simba70%
×Draw20%
Ihefu10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Simba
1.92
Ihefu
0.54

Simba creates 256% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 47 away

creates per match

Simba
2.37
Ihefu
0.57

allows per match

Simba
0.52
Ihefu
1.47

finishing

Simba+0.00on par
Ihefu+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Simba ↓

Ihefu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–15%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–19%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–016%
2–19%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Simba or draw
90%
Simba or Ihefu
80%
Draw or Ihefu
30%

Winning margin

Simba wins by 2+
44%
Ihefu wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Simba 1+ goals
85%
Simba 2+ goals
57%
Simba 3+ goals
30%
Ihefu 1+ goals
42%
Ihefu 2+ goals
10%
Ihefu 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Simba (draw refunded)
88%
Ihefu (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Simba at home — creates 2.37, concedes 0.52 · 111 matches

Ihefu away — creates 0.57, concedes 1.47 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Simba attack 2.37 + Ihefu defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.92

Ihefu attack 0.57 + Simba defence 0.52 → ÷2 → 0.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Simba scores more
70%
level
20%
Ihefu scores more
10%

Simba at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Simba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligi kuu Bara: Simba 2–1 Ihefu

Simba beat Ihefu 2-1 in Ligi kuu Bara on October 28, 2023.

The match was played at Benjamin Mkapa National Stadium in Dar-es-Salaam.