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Simba vs Horoya — CAF Champions League 2019

Simba
Simba
FT
7 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Horoya
Horoya
3/18/2023CAF Champions LeagueCAF Champions League · Group C - 5Benjamin Mkapa National Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Simba65%
×Draw23%
Horoya12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Simba
1.69
Horoya
0.55

Simba creates 207% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 17 away

creates per match

Simba
1.79
Horoya
0.47

allows per match

Simba
0.63
Horoya
1.59

finishing

Simba+0.00on par
Horoya+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Simba ↓

Horoya →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–110%
1–23%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Simba or draw
88%
Simba or Horoya
77%
Draw or Horoya
35%

Winning margin

Simba wins by 2+
37%
Horoya wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Simba 1+ goals
82%
Simba 2+ goals
50%
Simba 3+ goals
24%
Horoya 1+ goals
42%
Horoya 2+ goals
11%
Horoya 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Simba (draw refunded)
85%
Horoya (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Simba at home — creates 1.79, concedes 0.63 · 24 matches

Horoya away — creates 0.47, concedes 1.59 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Simba attack 1.79 + Horoya defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.69

Horoya attack 0.47 + Simba defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Simba scores more
65%
level
23%
Horoya scores more
12%

Simba at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Simba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Simba 7 – 0 Horoya

Simba beat Horoya 7-0 in CAF Champions League on March 18, 2023.

The match was played at Benjamin Mkapa National Stadium in Dar-es-Salaam.