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Simba vs Gwambina — Ligi kuu Bara 2019

Simba
Simba
FT
3 – 0
Gwambina
Gwambina
9/26/2020Ligi kuu BaraLigi kuu Bara · Round 4Benjamin Mkapa National Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Simba66%
×Draw21%
Gwambina13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Simba
1.95
Gwambina
0.73

Simba creates 167% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 17 away

creates per match

Simba
2.37
Gwambina
0.94

allows per match

Simba
0.52
Gwambina
1.53

finishing

Simba+0.00on par
Gwambina+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Simba ↓

Gwambina →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Simba or draw
87%
Simba or Gwambina
79%
Draw or Gwambina
34%

Winning margin

Simba wins by 2+
41%
Gwambina wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Simba 1+ goals
86%
Simba 2+ goals
58%
Simba 3+ goals
31%
Gwambina 1+ goals
52%
Gwambina 2+ goals
17%
Gwambina 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Simba (draw refunded)
83%
Gwambina (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Simba at home — creates 2.37, concedes 0.52 · 111 matches

Gwambina away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.53 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Simba attack 2.37 + Gwambina defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.95

Gwambina attack 0.94 + Simba defence 0.52 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Simba scores more
66%
level
21%
Gwambina scores more
13%

Simba at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Simba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligi kuu Bara: Simba 3–0 Gwambina

Simba beat Gwambina 3-0 in Ligi kuu Bara on September 26, 2020.

The match was played at Benjamin Mkapa National Stadium in Dar-es-Salaam.