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Simba vs Fountain Gate — Ligi kuu Bara 2025

Simba
Simba
FT
4 – 0
Fountain Gate
Fountain Gate
8/25/2024Ligi kuu BaraLigi kuu Bara · Round 2KMC Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Simba71%
×Draw19%
Fountain Gate10%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Simba
1.99
Fountain Gate
0.58

Simba creates 243% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 33 away

creates per match

Simba
2.46
Fountain Gate
0.73

allows per match

Simba
0.43
Fountain Gate
1.52

finishing

Simba+0.00on par
Fountain Gate+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Simba ↓

Fountain Gate →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–19%
1–23%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–19%
2–23%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Simba or draw
90%
Simba or Fountain Gate
81%
Draw or Fountain Gate
29%

Winning margin

Simba wins by 2+
45%
Fountain Gate wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Simba 1+ goals
86%
Simba 2+ goals
59%
Simba 3+ goals
32%
Fountain Gate 1+ goals
44%
Fountain Gate 2+ goals
12%
Fountain Gate 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Simba (draw refunded)
88%
Fountain Gate (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Simba at home — creates 2.46, concedes 0.43 · 28 matches

Fountain Gate away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.52 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Simba attack 2.46 + Fountain Gate defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.99

Fountain Gate attack 0.73 + Simba defence 0.43 → ÷2 → 0.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Simba scores more
71%
level
19%
Fountain Gate scores more
10%

Simba at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Simba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligi kuu Bara: Simba 4–0 Fountain Gate

Simba beat Fountain Gate 4-0 in Ligi kuu Bara on August 25, 2024.

The match was played at KMC Stadium in Dar es Salaam.