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Simba vs ES Tunis — CAF Champions League 2019

Simba
Simba
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
ES Tunis
ES Tunis
2/1/2026CAF Champions LeagueCAF Champions League · Round 4KMC Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Simba49%
×Draw28%
ES Tunis23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Simba
1.34
ES Tunis
0.82

Simba creates 63% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 40 away

creates per match

Simba
1.79
ES Tunis
1.02

allows per match

Simba
0.63
ES Tunis
0.90

finishing

Simba+0.00on par
ES Tunis+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Simba ↓

ES Tunis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Simba or draw
77%
Simba or ES Tunis
72%
Draw or ES Tunis
51%

Winning margin

Simba wins by 2+
23%
ES Tunis wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Simba 1+ goals
74%
Simba 2+ goals
39%
Simba 3+ goals
15%
ES Tunis 1+ goals
56%
ES Tunis 2+ goals
20%
ES Tunis 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Simba (draw refunded)
68%
ES Tunis (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Simba at home — creates 1.79, concedes 0.63 · 24 matches

ES Tunis away — creates 1.02, concedes 0.90 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Simba attack 1.79 + ES Tunis defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.34

ES Tunis attack 1.02 + Simba defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Simba scores more
49%
level
28%
ES Tunis scores more
23%

Simba at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Simba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Simba vs ES Tunis

Simba and ES Tunis drew 2-2 in CAF Champions League on February 1, 2026.

The match was played at KMC Stadium in Dar es Salaam.