Simba 1–2 Don Bosco: Result & Stats | Ligue 1

Simba

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Don Bosco

11/30/2025

Ligue 1 · Round 10

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Simba37%

×Draw31%

Don Bosco32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SimbaExpected goals in this matchDon Bosco

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.04

0.94

Simba

1.04

Don Bosco

0.94

Simba creates 11% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 96 away

0.92

creates per match

0.85

1.03

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

Simba

0.92

Don Bosco

0.85

allows per match

Simba

1.03

Don Bosco

1.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Simba+0.00on par

Don Bosco+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Simba ↓

Don Bosco →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–113%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Simba or draw

68%

Simba or Don Bosco

69%

Draw or Don Bosco

63%

Winning margin

Simba wins by 2+

15%

Don Bosco wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Simba 1+ goals

65%

Simba 2+ goals

28%

Simba 3+ goals

9%

Don Bosco 1+ goals

61%

Don Bosco 2+ goals

24%

Don Bosco 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Simba (draw refunded)

54%

Don Bosco (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Simba at home — creates 0.92, concedes 1.03 · 92 matches

Don Bosco away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.16 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Simba attack 0.92 + Don Bosco defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.04

Don Bosco attack 0.85 + Simba defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Simba scores more

37%

level

31%

Don Bosco scores more

32%

Simba at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Simba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff