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Simba Bhora vs Kariba — Premier Soccer League 2026

Simba Bhora
Simba Bhora
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Kariba
Kariba
5/9/2026Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 11

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Simba Bhora50%
×Draw31%
Kariba18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Simba Bhora
1.17
Kariba
0.58

Simba Bhora creates 102% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 96 away

creates per match

Simba Bhora
1.13
Kariba
0.61

allows per match

Simba Bhora
0.55
Kariba
1.20

finishing

Simba Bhora+0.00on par
Kariba+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Under
  • Under74
  • Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

70%No
  • No70
  • Yes30

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Simba Bhora ↓

Kariba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–110%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–112%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
52%48%2.5
26%74%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Simba Bhora or draw
82%
Simba Bhora or Kariba
69%
Draw or Kariba
50%

Winning margin

Simba Bhora wins by 2+
22%
Kariba wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Simba Bhora 1+ goals
69%
Simba Bhora 2+ goals
33%
Simba Bhora 3+ goals
11%
Kariba 1+ goals
44%
Kariba 2+ goals
12%
Kariba 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Simba Bhora (draw refunded)
73%
Kariba (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
19%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Simba Bhora at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.55 · 62 matches

Kariba away — creates 0.61, concedes 1.20 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Simba Bhora attack 1.13 + Kariba defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.17

Kariba attack 0.61 + Simba Bhora defence 0.55 → ÷2 → 0.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Simba Bhora scores more
50%
level
31%
Kariba scores more
18%

Simba Bhora at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Simba Bhora will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier Soccer League: Simba Bhora 2–1 Kariba

Simba Bhora beat Kariba 2-1 in Premier Soccer League on May 9, 2026.