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Simba Bhora vs Hwange — Premier Soccer League 2026

Simba Bhora
Simba Bhora
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Hwange
Hwange
4/14/2023Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 5National Sports Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Simba Bhora53%
×Draw30%
Hwange17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Simba Bhora
1.25
Hwange
0.57

Simba Bhora creates 119% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 52 away

creates per match

Simba Bhora
1.13
Hwange
0.60

allows per match

Simba Bhora
0.55
Hwange
1.37

finishing

Simba Bhora+0.00on par
Hwange+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

69%No
  • No69
  • Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Simba Bhora ↓

Hwange →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–112%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
54%46%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Simba Bhora or draw
83%
Simba Bhora or Hwange
70%
Draw or Hwange
47%

Winning margin

Simba Bhora wins by 2+
25%
Hwange wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Simba Bhora 1+ goals
71%
Simba Bhora 2+ goals
36%
Simba Bhora 3+ goals
13%
Hwange 1+ goals
43%
Hwange 2+ goals
11%
Hwange 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Simba Bhora (draw refunded)
76%
Hwange (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
19%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Simba Bhora at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.55 · 62 matches

Hwange away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.37 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Simba Bhora attack 1.13 + Hwange defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.25

Hwange attack 0.60 + Simba Bhora defence 0.55 → ÷2 → 0.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Simba Bhora scores more
53%
level
30%
Hwange scores more
17%

Simba Bhora at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Simba Bhora will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Simba Bhora vs Hwange

Simba Bhora beat Hwange 2-0 in Premier Soccer League on April 14, 2023.

The match was played at National Sports Stadium in Harare.