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Simba Bhora vs Dynamos — Premier Soccer League 2026

Simba Bhora
Simba Bhora
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Dynamos
Dynamos
J. Makunike 84'
7/19/2025Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 21Wadzanai Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Simba Bhora38%
×Draw34%
Dynamos27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Simba Bhora
0.93
Dynamos
0.73

Simba Bhora creates 27% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 97 away

creates per match

Simba Bhora
1.13
Dynamos
0.91

allows per match

Simba Bhora
0.55
Dynamos
0.74

finishing

Simba Bhora+0.00on par
Dynamos+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Under
  • Under77
  • Over23

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

69%No
  • No69
  • Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Simba Bhora ↓

Dynamos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–019%
0–114%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–16%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (19%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
81%19%1.5
49%51%2.5
23%77%3.5
9%91%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Simba Bhora or draw
73%
Simba Bhora or Dynamos
66%
Draw or Dynamos
62%

Winning margin

Simba Bhora wins by 2+
14%
Dynamos wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Simba Bhora 1+ goals
61%
Simba Bhora 2+ goals
24%
Simba Bhora 3+ goals
7%
Dynamos 1+ goals
52%
Dynamos 2+ goals
17%
Dynamos 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Simba Bhora (draw refunded)
59%
Dynamos (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
18%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Simba Bhora at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.55 · 62 matches

Dynamos away — creates 0.91, concedes 0.74 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Simba Bhora attack 1.13 + Dynamos defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.93

Dynamos attack 0.91 + Simba Bhora defence 0.55 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Simba Bhora scores more
38%
level
34%
Dynamos scores more
27%

Simba Bhora at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Simba Bhora will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

84'
J. Makunike

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier Soccer League: Simba Bhora 1–0 Dynamos

Simba Bhora beat Dynamos 1-0 in Premier Soccer League on July 19, 2025.

Goals: J. Makunike (84').

The match was played at Wadzanai Stadium in Shamva.