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Simba Bhora vs Cranborne Bullets — Premier Soccer League 2026

Simba Bhora
Simba Bhora
FT
0 – 1
Cranborne Bullets
Cranborne Bullets
5/5/2023Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 8National Sports Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Simba Bhora51%
×Draw30%
Cranborne Bullets19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Simba Bhora
1.23
Cranborne Bullets
0.63

Simba Bhora creates 95% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 34 away

creates per match

Simba Bhora
1.13
Cranborne Bullets
0.71

allows per match

Simba Bhora
0.55
Cranborne Bullets
1.32

finishing

Simba Bhora+0.00on par
Cranborne Bullets+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Simba Bhora ↓

Cranborne Bullets →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–110%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Simba Bhora or draw
81%
Simba Bhora or Cranborne Bullets
70%
Draw or Cranborne Bullets
49%

Winning margin

Simba Bhora wins by 2+
23%
Cranborne Bullets wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Simba Bhora 1+ goals
71%
Simba Bhora 2+ goals
35%
Simba Bhora 3+ goals
13%
Cranborne Bullets 1+ goals
47%
Cranborne Bullets 2+ goals
13%
Cranborne Bullets 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Simba Bhora (draw refunded)
73%
Cranborne Bullets (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Simba Bhora at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.55 · 62 matches

Cranborne Bullets away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.32 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Simba Bhora attack 1.13 + Cranborne Bullets defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.23

Cranborne Bullets attack 0.71 + Simba Bhora defence 0.55 → ÷2 → 0.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Simba Bhora scores more
51%
level
30%
Cranborne Bullets scores more
19%

Simba Bhora at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Simba Bhora will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Simba Bhora vs Cranborne Bullets

Cranborne Bullets beat Simba Bhora 1-0 in Premier Soccer League on May 5, 2023.

The match was played at National Sports Stadium in Harare.