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Simba Bhora vs Black Rhinos — Premier Soccer League 2026

Simba Bhora
Simba Bhora
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Black Rhinos
Black Rhinos
11/25/2023Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 34Baobab Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Simba Bhora46%
×Draw33%
Black Rhinos21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Simba Bhora
1.07
Black Rhinos
0.61

Simba Bhora creates 75% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 51 away

creates per match

Simba Bhora
1.13
Black Rhinos
0.67

allows per match

Simba Bhora
0.55
Black Rhinos
1.02

finishing

Simba Bhora+0.00on par
Black Rhinos+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Under
  • Under76
  • Over24

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

70%No
  • No70
  • Yes30

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Simba Bhora ↓

Black Rhinos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–019%
0–111%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
81%19%1.5
50%50%2.5
24%76%3.5
9%91%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Simba Bhora or draw
79%
Simba Bhora or Black Rhinos
67%
Draw or Black Rhinos
54%

Winning margin

Simba Bhora wins by 2+
19%
Black Rhinos wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Simba Bhora 1+ goals
66%
Simba Bhora 2+ goals
29%
Simba Bhora 3+ goals
9%
Black Rhinos 1+ goals
46%
Black Rhinos 2+ goals
13%
Black Rhinos 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Simba Bhora (draw refunded)
69%
Black Rhinos (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
18%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Simba Bhora at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.55 · 62 matches

Black Rhinos away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.02 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Simba Bhora attack 1.13 + Black Rhinos defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.07

Black Rhinos attack 0.67 + Simba Bhora defence 0.55 → ÷2 → 0.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Simba Bhora scores more
46%
level
33%
Black Rhinos scores more
21%

Simba Bhora at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Simba Bhora will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier Soccer League: Simba Bhora 0–1 Black Rhinos

Black Rhinos beat Simba Bhora 1-0 in Premier Soccer League on November 25, 2023.

The match was played at Baobab Stadium in Ngezi.