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Silver Strikers vs Karonga United — Super League 2026

Silver Strikers
Silver Strikers
FT
4 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Karonga United
Karonga United
5/25/2024Super LeagueSuper League · Round 7Silver Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 82+ matches

Silver Strikers62%
×Draw23%
Karonga United15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Silver Strikers
1.72
Karonga United
0.70

Silver Strikers creates 146% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 82 away

creates per match

Silver Strikers
2.00
Karonga United
0.78

allows per match

Silver Strikers
0.62
Karonga United
1.44

finishing

Silver Strikers+0.00on par
Karonga United+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Silver Strikers ↓

Karonga United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Silver Strikers or draw
85%
Silver Strikers or Karonga United
77%
Draw or Karonga United
38%

Winning margin

Silver Strikers wins by 2+
35%
Karonga United wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Silver Strikers 1+ goals
82%
Silver Strikers 2+ goals
51%
Silver Strikers 3+ goals
25%
Karonga United 1+ goals
50%
Karonga United 2+ goals
16%
Karonga United 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Silver Strikers (draw refunded)
81%
Karonga United (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Silver Strikers at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.62 · 82 matches

Karonga United away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.44 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Silver Strikers attack 2.00 + Karonga United defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.72

Karonga United attack 0.78 + Silver Strikers defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Silver Strikers scores more
62%
level
23%
Karonga United scores more
15%

Silver Strikers at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Silver Strikers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Silver Strikers vs Karonga United

Silver Strikers beat Karonga United 4-2 in Super League on May 25, 2024.

The match was played at Silver Stadium in Lilongwe.