Silver Strikers 2–1 Dwangwa United: Result & Stats

Silver Strikers

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Dwangwa United

7/13/2019

Super League · Round 1Chitowe Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Silver Strikers69%

×Draw20%

Dwangwa United11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Silver StrikersExpected goals in this matchDwangwa United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.00

0.65

Silver Strikers

2.00

Dwangwa United

0.65

Silver Strikers creates 208% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 3 away

2.00

creates per match

0.67

0.62

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Silver Strikers

2.00

Dwangwa United

0.67

allows per match

Silver Strikers

0.62

Dwangwa United

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Silver Strikers+0.00on par

Dwangwa United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Silver Strikers ↓

Dwangwa United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–15%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–19%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–16%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Silver Strikers or draw

89%

Silver Strikers or Dwangwa United

80%

Draw or Dwangwa United

31%

Winning margin

Silver Strikers wins by 2+

43%

Dwangwa United wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Silver Strikers 1+ goals

86%

Silver Strikers 2+ goals

59%

Silver Strikers 3+ goals

32%

Dwangwa United 1+ goals

48%

Dwangwa United 2+ goals

14%

Dwangwa United 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Silver Strikers (draw refunded)

86%

Dwangwa United (draw refunded)

14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Silver Strikers at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.62 · 82 matches

Dwangwa United away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Silver Strikers attack 2.00 + Dwangwa United defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.00

Dwangwa United attack 0.67 + Silver Strikers defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Silver Strikers scores more

69%

level

20%

Dwangwa United scores more

11%

Silver Strikers at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Silver Strikers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff