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Silver Sands vs Wotton — Premier League 2019

Silver Sands
Silver Sands
CANC
23:00
Wotton
Wotton
6/6/2020Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 10Wildey Turf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Silver Sands21%
×Draw17%
Wotton62%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Silver Sands
1.62
Wotton
2.83

Wotton creates 75% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 44 away

creates per match

Silver Sands
0.74
Wotton
1.80

allows per match

Silver Sands
3.87
Wotton
2.50

finishing

Silver Sands+0.00on par
Wotton+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Silver Sands ↓

Wotton →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–25%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–28%
1–37%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–26%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
82%18%3.5
64%36%4.5
44%56%

Double chance

Silver Sands or draw
38%
Silver Sands or Wotton
83%
Draw or Wotton
79%

Winning margin

Silver Sands wins by 2+
9%
Wotton wins by 2+
42%

Team goals

Silver Sands 1+ goals
80%
Silver Sands 2+ goals
48%
Silver Sands 3+ goals
22%
Wotton 1+ goals
94%
Wotton 2+ goals
77%
Wotton 3+ goals
53%

Draw no bet

Silver Sands (draw refunded)
25%
Wotton (draw refunded)
75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
70%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Silver Sands at home — creates 0.74, concedes 3.87 · 23 matches

Wotton away — creates 1.80, concedes 2.50 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Silver Sands attack 0.74 + Wotton defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.62

Wotton attack 1.80 + Silver Sands defence 3.87 → ÷2 → 2.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Silver Sands scores more
21%
level
17%
Wotton scores more
62%

Wotton at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Wotton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Silver Sands host Wotton

June 6, 2020: Silver Sands take on Wotton in Premier League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Silver Sands host Wotton at Wildey Turf.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.