Silva 0–2 Villalbés: Result & Stats

Silva

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Villalbés

12/21/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 15Campo Municipal de Fútbol Rodrigo García Vizoso

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

Silva37%

×Draw30%

Villalbés32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SilvaExpected goals in this matchVillalbés

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.08

0.98

Silva

1.08

Villalbés

0.98

Silva creates 10% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 94 away

1.10

creates per match

0.90

1.06

allows per match

1.05

creates per match

Silva

1.10

Villalbés

0.90

allows per match

Silva

1.06

Villalbés

1.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Silva+0.00on par

Villalbés+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Silva ↓

Villalbés →

0–013%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1–014%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Silva or draw

68%

Silva or Villalbés

70%

Draw or Villalbés

63%

Winning margin

Silva wins by 2+

15%

Villalbés wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Silva 1+ goals

66%

Silva 2+ goals

29%

Silva 3+ goals

10%

Villalbés 1+ goals

62%

Villalbés 2+ goals

26%

Villalbés 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Silva (draw refunded)

54%

Villalbés (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Silva at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.06 · 109 matches

Villalbés away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.05 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Silva attack 1.10 + Villalbés defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.08

Villalbés attack 0.90 + Silva defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 37%?"

Silva scores more

37%

level

30%

Villalbés scores more

32%

Silva at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Silva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff