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Silva vs Valladares — Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Silva
Silva
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Valladares
Valladares
1/11/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 1Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 17Campo Municipal de Fútbol Rodrigo García Vizoso

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Silva48%
×Draw27%
Valladares25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Silva
1.43
Valladares
0.94

Silva creates 52% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 17 away

creates per match

Silva
1.10
Valladares
0.82

allows per match

Silva
1.06
Valladares
1.76

finishing

Silva+0.00on par
Valladares+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Silva ↓

Valladares →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Silva or draw
75%
Silva or Valladares
73%
Draw or Valladares
52%

Winning margin

Silva wins by 2+
24%
Valladares wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Silva 1+ goals
76%
Silva 2+ goals
42%
Silva 3+ goals
17%
Valladares 1+ goals
61%
Valladares 2+ goals
24%
Valladares 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Silva (draw refunded)
66%
Valladares (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Silva at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.06 · 109 matches

Valladares away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.76 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Silva attack 1.10 + Valladares defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.43

Valladares attack 0.82 + Silva defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Silva scores more
48%
level
27%
Valladares scores more
25%

Silva at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Silva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Silva vs Valladares

Silva beat Valladares 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 on January 11, 2025.

The match was played at Campo Municipal de Fútbol Rodrigo García Vizoso in La Coruña.