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Silva vs Pontevedra II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Silva
Silva
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Pontevedra II
Pontevedra II
11/5/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 1Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 9Campo Municipal de Fútbol Rodrigo García Vizoso

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Silva58%
×Draw23%
Pontevedra II19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Silva
1.76
Pontevedra II
0.89

Silva creates 98% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 17 away

creates per match

Silva
1.10
Pontevedra II
0.71

allows per match

Silva
1.06
Pontevedra II
2.41

finishing

Silva+0.00on par
Pontevedra II+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Silva ↓

Pontevedra II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Silva or draw
81%
Silva or Pontevedra II
77%
Draw or Pontevedra II
42%

Winning margin

Silva wins by 2+
33%
Pontevedra II wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Silva 1+ goals
83%
Silva 2+ goals
52%
Silva 3+ goals
26%
Pontevedra II 1+ goals
59%
Pontevedra II 2+ goals
22%
Pontevedra II 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Silva (draw refunded)
75%
Pontevedra II (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Silva at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.06 · 109 matches

Pontevedra II away — creates 0.71, concedes 2.41 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Silva attack 1.10 + Pontevedra II defence 2.41 → ÷2 → 1.76

Pontevedra II attack 0.71 + Silva defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Silva scores more
58%
level
23%
Pontevedra II scores more
19%

Silva at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Silva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 1: Silva 0–0 Pontevedra II

Silva and Pontevedra II drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 on November 5, 2023.

The match was played at Campo Municipal de Fútbol Rodrigo García Vizoso in La Coruña.