Silva 1–2 Ourense CF: Result & Stats

Silva

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Ourense CF

Antonio Garda 82'

Gabri Palmás 47'

Jerin Ramos 27'

4/9/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 31Campo Municipal de Fútbol Rodrigo García Vizoso

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Silva31%

×Draw28%

Ourense CF41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SilvaExpected goals in this matchOurense CF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.06

1.27

Silva

1.06

Ourense CF

1.27

Ourense CF creates 20% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 47 away

1.10

creates per match

1.47

1.06

allows per match

1.02

creates per match

Silva

1.10

Ourense CF

1.47

allows per match

Silva

1.06

Ourense CF

1.02

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Silva+0.00on par

Ourense CF+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Silva ↓

Ourense CF →

0–010%

0–112%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2–05%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Silva or draw

59%

Silva or Ourense CF

72%

Draw or Ourense CF

69%

Winning margin

Silva wins by 2+

12%

Ourense CF wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Silva 1+ goals

65%

Silva 2+ goals

29%

Silva 3+ goals

Ourense CF 1+ goals

72%

Ourense CF 2+ goals

36%

Ourense CF 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Silva (draw refunded)

43%

Ourense CF (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Silva at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.06 · 109 matches

Ourense CF away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.02 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Silva attack 1.10 + Ourense CF defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.06

Ourense CF attack 1.47 + Silva defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 41%?"

Silva scores more

31%

level

28%

Ourense CF scores more

41%

Ourense CF at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Ourense CF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

27'

Jerin Ramos

32'

Xusto Pardeiro← Y. Dembélé

47'

Gabri Palmás

60'

José Souto← Manuel Máquez

69'

Hugo Sanz← Rubén Sánchez

71'

Alex Sánchez← Brais Lema

71'

J. Pose← João Paulo dos Santos

77'

Iker Hurtado← Gabri Palmás

82'

Antonio Garda

90+2'

Yago Rodriguez← Tiago Rodríguez

Silva

Ourense

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: Javier Bardanca

32'▲Xusto Pardeiro←▼Y. Dembélé

60'▲José Souto←▼Manuel Máquez

71'▲Alex Sánchez←▼Brais Lema

71'▲J. Pose←▼João Paulo dos Santos

Silva substitutes

PardeiroSoutoSánchezPose

Manager: Rubén Domínguez

69'▲Hugo Sanz←▼Rubén Sánchez

77'▲Iker Hurtado←▼Gabri Palmás

90+2'▲Yago Rodriguez←▼Tiago Rodríguez

Ourense CF substitutes

SanzHurtadoRodriguez