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Silva vs Choco — Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Silva
Silva
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Choco
Choco
1/29/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 1Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 18Campo Municipal de Fútbol Rodrigo García Vizoso

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Silva42%
×Draw28%
Choco29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Silva
1.26
Choco
0.99

Silva creates 27% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 59 away

creates per match

Silva
1.10
Choco
0.92

allows per match

Silva
1.06
Choco
1.42

finishing

Silva+0.00on par
Choco+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Silva ↓

Choco →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Silva or draw
71%
Silva or Choco
72%
Draw or Choco
58%

Winning margin

Silva wins by 2+
19%
Choco wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Silva 1+ goals
72%
Silva 2+ goals
36%
Silva 3+ goals
13%
Choco 1+ goals
63%
Choco 2+ goals
26%
Choco 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Silva (draw refunded)
59%
Choco (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Silva at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.06 · 109 matches

Choco away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.42 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Silva attack 1.10 + Choco defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.26

Choco attack 0.92 + Silva defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Silva scores more
42%
level
28%
Choco scores more
29%

Silva at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Silva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Silva vs Choco

Choco beat Silva 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 on January 29, 2023.

The match was played at Campo Municipal de Fútbol Rodrigo García Vizoso in La Coruña.