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Silva vs Agrupación Estudiantil — Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Silva
Silva
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Agrupación Estudiantil
Agrupación Estudiantil
2/21/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 1Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 15Campo Municipal San Pedro de Visma I

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Silva49%
×Draw25%
Agrupación Estudiantil26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Silva
1.61
Agrupación Estudiantil
1.09

Silva creates 48% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 17 away

creates per match

Silva
1.10
Agrupación Estudiantil
1.12

allows per match

Silva
1.06
Agrupación Estudiantil
2.12

finishing

Silva+0.00on par
Agrupación Estudiantil+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Silva ↓

Agrupación Estudiantil →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
28%72%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Silva or draw
74%
Silva or Agrupación Estudiantil
75%
Draw or Agrupación Estudiantil
51%

Winning margin

Silva wins by 2+
26%
Agrupación Estudiantil wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Silva 1+ goals
80%
Silva 2+ goals
48%
Silva 3+ goals
22%
Agrupación Estudiantil 1+ goals
66%
Agrupación Estudiantil 2+ goals
30%
Agrupación Estudiantil 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Silva (draw refunded)
66%
Agrupación Estudiantil (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Silva at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.06 · 109 matches

Agrupación Estudiantil away — creates 1.12, concedes 2.12 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Silva attack 1.10 + Agrupación Estudiantil defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.61

Agrupación Estudiantil attack 1.12 + Silva defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Silva scores more
49%
level
25%
Agrupación Estudiantil scores more
26%

Silva at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Silva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Silva 1 – 1 Agrupación Estudiantil

Silva and Agrupación Estudiantil drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 on February 21, 2021.

The match was played at Campo Municipal San Pedro de Visma I in La Coruña.