Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Šilutė vs Be1 NFA — Cup 2020

Šilutė
Šilutė
FT
0 – 5
HT: 0 – 2
Be1 NFA
Be1 NFA
4/11/2026CupCup · 1st Round

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Šilutė3%
×Draw8%
Be1 NFA88%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Šilutė
0.56
Be1 NFA
3.38

Be1 NFA creates 504% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 8 away

creates per match

Šilutė
0.75
Be1 NFA
2.50

allows per match

Šilutė
4.25
Be1 NFA
0.38

finishing

Šilutė+0.00on par
Be1 NFA+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Šilutė ↓

Be1 NFA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–17%
0–212%
0–313%
0–411%
1
1–01%
1–14%
1–27%
1–37%
1–46%
2
2–00%
2–11%
2–22%
2–32%
2–42%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–3 (13%) · grid covers 79% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Šilutė or draw
12%
Šilutė or Be1 NFA
92%
Draw or Be1 NFA
97%

Winning margin

Šilutė wins by 2+
1%
Be1 NFA wins by 2+
72%

Team goals

Šilutė 1+ goals
43%
Šilutė 2+ goals
11%
Šilutė 3+ goals
2%
Be1 NFA 1+ goals
96%
Be1 NFA 2+ goals
84%
Be1 NFA 3+ goals
64%

Draw no bet

Šilutė (draw refunded)
4%
Be1 NFA (draw refunded)
96%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Šilutė at home — creates 0.75, concedes 4.25 · 4 matches

Be1 NFA away — creates 2.50, concedes 0.38 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Šilutė attack 0.75 + Be1 NFA defence 0.38 → ÷2 → 0.56

Be1 NFA attack 2.50 + Šilutė defence 4.25 → ÷2 → 3.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 88%?"

Šilutė scores more
3%
level
8%
Be1 NFA scores more
88%

Be1 NFA at 88% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 88% does not mean "Be1 NFA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Šilutė vs Be1 NFA

Be1 NFA beat Šilutė 5-0 in Cup on April 11, 2026.