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Silla vs Castellón II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

Silla
Silla
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Castellón II
Castellón II
2/20/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 6Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 27Complejo Deportivo Municipal Vicent Morera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Silla38%
×Draw28%
Castellón II34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Silla
1.23
Castellón II
1.15

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 76 home / 67 away

creates per match

Silla
0.91
Castellón II
1.22

allows per match

Silla
1.07
Castellón II
1.54

finishing

Silla+0.00on par
Castellón II+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Silla ↓

Castellón II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Silla or draw
66%
Silla or Castellón II
72%
Draw or Castellón II
62%

Winning margin

Silla wins by 2+
16%
Castellón II wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Silla 1+ goals
71%
Silla 2+ goals
35%
Silla 3+ goals
13%
Castellón II 1+ goals
68%
Castellón II 2+ goals
32%
Castellón II 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Silla (draw refunded)
53%
Castellón II (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Silla at home — creates 0.91, concedes 1.07 · 76 matches

Castellón II away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.54 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Silla attack 0.91 + Castellón II defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.23

Castellón II attack 1.22 + Silla defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Silla scores more
38%
level
28%
Castellón II scores more
34%

Silla at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Silla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Silla vs Castellón II

Silla beat Castellón II 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 on February 20, 2022.

The match was played at Complejo Deportivo Municipal Vicent Morera in Silla.