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Silla vs Benicarló — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

Silla
Silla
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Benicarló
Benicarló
3/10/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 6Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 14Complejo Deportivo Municipal Vicent Morera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Silla34%
×Draw29%
Benicarló36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Silla
1.06
Benicarló
1.10

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 76 home / 14 away

creates per match

Silla
0.91
Benicarló
1.14

allows per match

Silla
1.07
Benicarló
1.21

finishing

Silla+0.00on par
Benicarló+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Silla ↓

Benicarló →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–113%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Silla or draw
64%
Silla or Benicarló
71%
Draw or Benicarló
66%

Winning margin

Silla wins by 2+
13%
Benicarló wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Silla 1+ goals
65%
Silla 2+ goals
29%
Silla 3+ goals
9%
Benicarló 1+ goals
67%
Benicarló 2+ goals
30%
Benicarló 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Silla (draw refunded)
49%
Benicarló (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Silla at home — creates 0.91, concedes 1.07 · 76 matches

Benicarló away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.21 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Silla attack 0.91 + Benicarló defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.06

Benicarló attack 1.14 + Silla defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Silla scores more
34%
level
29%
Benicarló scores more
36%

Benicarló at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Benicarló will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Silla vs Benicarló

Benicarló beat Silla 4-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 on March 10, 2021.

The match was played at Complejo Deportivo Municipal Vicent Morera in Silla.