Silkeborg 2–1 Odense: Result & Stats | Superliga

Silkeborg

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Odense

T. Adamsen 79'

C. McCowatt 42'

N. Ganaus 1'

9/14/2025

Superliga · Round 8Jysk Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 18+ matches

Silkeborg44%

×Draw24%

Odense33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SilkeborgExpected goals in this matchOdense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.68

1.43

Silkeborg

1.68

Odense

1.43

Silkeborg creates 17% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 18 away

1.54

creates per match

1.28

1.57

allows per match

1.81

creates per match

Silkeborg

1.54

Odense

1.28

allows per match

Silkeborg

1.57

Odense

1.81

-0.14scores less than expected

finishing

-0.06on par

finishing

Silkeborg-0.14scores less

Odense-0.06on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Silkeborg ↓

Odense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Silkeborg or draw

67%

Silkeborg or Odense

76%

Draw or Odense

56%

Winning margin

Silkeborg wins by 2+

23%

Odense wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Silkeborg 1+ goals

81%

Silkeborg 2+ goals

50%

Silkeborg 3+ goals

24%

Odense 1+ goals

76%

Odense 2+ goals

42%

Odense 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Silkeborg (draw refunded)

57%

Odense (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Silkeborg at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.57 · 25 matches

Odense away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.81 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Silkeborg attack 1.54 + Odense defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.68

Odense attack 1.28 + Silkeborg defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Silkeborg scores more

44%

level

24%

Odense scores more

33%

Silkeborg at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Silkeborg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

C. McCowatt

Silkeborg · M

8.2

Match Events

1'

N. Ganaus↳ A. Sorensen

42'

C. McCowatt↳ A. Poulsen

54'

62'

62'

69'

69'

72'

B. Paulsen← N. Ganaus

77'

Y. Bakiz← R. Al Hajj

79'

T. Adamsen↳ P. Ganchas

82'

L. Montano← A. Poulsen

82'

J. Gomez← J. Askou

85'

Pedro Ganchas

90+2'

Jona Niemiec

90+3'

A. Bondergaard← T. Adamsen

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SilkeborgOdense

Overview

47%Possession53%

6Total Shots13

0.31Expected Goals (xG)1.42

2Corners11

11Fouls16

Shots

6Total Shots13

3On Target2

1Off Target9

2Blocked2

2Inside Box9

4Outside Box4

Passing

47%Possession53%

511Total Passes572

430Accurate Passes488

84%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

11Fouls16

1Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards1

4Offsides2