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Silkeborg vs Anderlecht — UEFA Europa Conference League 2021

Silkeborg
Silkeborg
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Anderlecht
Anderlecht
11/3/2022UEFA Europa Conference LeagueUEFA Europa Conference League · Group Stage - 6JYSK park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Silkeborg34%
×Draw27%
Anderlecht39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Silkeborg
1.20
Anderlecht
1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 11 away

creates per match

Silkeborg
1.67
Anderlecht
1.09

allows per match

Silkeborg
1.50
Anderlecht
0.73

finishing

Silkeborg+0.00on par
Anderlecht+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Silkeborg ↓

Anderlecht →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Silkeborg or draw
61%
Silkeborg or Anderlecht
73%
Draw or Anderlecht
66%

Winning margin

Silkeborg wins by 2+
14%
Anderlecht wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Silkeborg 1+ goals
70%
Silkeborg 2+ goals
34%
Silkeborg 3+ goals
12%
Anderlecht 1+ goals
72%
Anderlecht 2+ goals
37%
Anderlecht 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Silkeborg (draw refunded)
47%
Anderlecht (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Silkeborg at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

Anderlecht away — creates 1.09, concedes 0.73 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Silkeborg attack 1.67 + Anderlecht defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 1.20

Anderlecht attack 1.09 + Silkeborg defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Silkeborg scores more
34%
level
27%
Anderlecht scores more
39%

Anderlecht at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Anderlecht will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA Europa Conference League: Silkeborg 0–2 Anderlecht

Anderlecht beat Silkeborg 2-0 in UEFA Europa Conference League on November 3, 2022.

The match was played at JYSK park in Silkeborg.