Silkeborg KFUM 3–0 SfB-Oure: Result & Stats

Silkeborg KFUM

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

SfB-Oure

6/11/2023

3. Division · Relegation Round - 9JYSK park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Silkeborg KFUM55%

×Draw21%

SfB-Oure24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Silkeborg KFUMExpected goals in this matchSfB-Oure

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.04

1.29

Silkeborg KFUM

2.04

SfB-Oure

1.29

Silkeborg KFUM creates 58% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 32 away

1.58

creates per match

1.28

1.30

allows per match

2.50

creates per match

Silkeborg KFUM

1.58

SfB-Oure

1.28

allows per match

Silkeborg KFUM

1.30

SfB-Oure

2.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Silkeborg KFUM+0.00on par

SfB-Oure+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Silkeborg KFUM ↓

SfB-Oure →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Silkeborg KFUM or draw

76%

Silkeborg KFUM or SfB-Oure

79%

Draw or SfB-Oure

45%

Winning margin

Silkeborg KFUM wins by 2+

32%

SfB-Oure wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Silkeborg KFUM 1+ goals

87%

Silkeborg KFUM 2+ goals

60%

Silkeborg KFUM 3+ goals

33%

SfB-Oure 1+ goals

72%

SfB-Oure 2+ goals

37%

SfB-Oure 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Silkeborg KFUM (draw refunded)

69%

SfB-Oure (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Silkeborg KFUM at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.30 · 64 matches

SfB-Oure away — creates 1.28, concedes 2.50 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Silkeborg KFUM attack 1.58 + SfB-Oure defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.04

SfB-Oure attack 1.28 + Silkeborg KFUM defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Silkeborg KFUM scores more

55%

level

21%

SfB-Oure scores more

24%

Silkeborg KFUM at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Silkeborg KFUM will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff