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Silkeborg KFUM vs Karlslunde — 3. Division 2021

Silkeborg KFUM
Silkeborg KFUM
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Karlslunde
Karlslunde
5/1/20223. Division3. Division · Relegation Round - 3JYSK park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Silkeborg KFUM48%
×Draw23%
Karlslunde29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Silkeborg KFUM
1.85
Karlslunde
1.40

Silkeborg KFUM creates 32% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 16 away

creates per match

Silkeborg KFUM
1.58
Karlslunde
1.50

allows per match

Silkeborg KFUM
1.30
Karlslunde
2.13

finishing

Silkeborg KFUM+0.00on par
Karlslunde+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Silkeborg KFUM ↓

Karlslunde →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Silkeborg KFUM or draw
71%
Silkeborg KFUM or Karlslunde
77%
Draw or Karlslunde
52%

Winning margin

Silkeborg KFUM wins by 2+
26%
Karlslunde wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Silkeborg KFUM 1+ goals
84%
Silkeborg KFUM 2+ goals
55%
Silkeborg KFUM 3+ goals
28%
Karlslunde 1+ goals
75%
Karlslunde 2+ goals
41%
Karlslunde 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Silkeborg KFUM (draw refunded)
62%
Karlslunde (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Silkeborg KFUM at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.30 · 64 matches

Karlslunde away — creates 1.50, concedes 2.13 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Silkeborg KFUM attack 1.58 + Karlslunde defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.85

Karlslunde attack 1.50 + Silkeborg KFUM defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Silkeborg KFUM scores more
48%
level
23%
Karlslunde scores more
29%

Silkeborg KFUM at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Silkeborg KFUM will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division: Silkeborg KFUM 1–1 Karlslunde

Silkeborg KFUM and Karlslunde drew 1-1 in 3. Division on May 1, 2022.

The match was played at JYSK park in Silkeborg.