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Silivrispor vs Kastamonuspor — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Silivrispor
Silivrispor
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Kastamonuspor
Kastamonuspor
9/25/2019Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 3rd RoundSilivri Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Silivrispor68%
×Draw18%
Kastamonuspor14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Silivrispor
2.40
Kastamonuspor
1.00

Silivrispor creates 140% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 5 away

creates per match

Silivrispor
2.00
Kastamonuspor
1.00

allows per match

Silivrispor
1.00
Kastamonuspor
2.80

finishing

Silivrispor+0.00on par
Kastamonuspor+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Silivrispor ↓

Kastamonuspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Silivrispor or draw
86%
Silivrispor or Kastamonuspor
82%
Draw or Kastamonuspor
32%

Winning margin

Silivrispor wins by 2+
45%
Kastamonuspor wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Silivrispor 1+ goals
91%
Silivrispor 2+ goals
69%
Silivrispor 3+ goals
42%
Kastamonuspor 1+ goals
63%
Kastamonuspor 2+ goals
26%
Kastamonuspor 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Silivrispor (draw refunded)
83%
Kastamonuspor (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Silivrispor at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

Kastamonuspor away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Silivrispor attack 2.00 + Kastamonuspor defence 2.80 → ÷2 → 2.40

Kastamonuspor attack 1.00 + Silivrispor defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Silivrispor scores more
68%
level
18%
Kastamonuspor scores more
14%

Silivrispor at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Silivrispor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Türkiye Kupası: Silivrispor 1–2 Kastamonuspor

Kastamonuspor beat Silivrispor 2-1 in Türkiye Kupası on September 25, 2019.

The match was played at Silivri Stadyumu in İstanbul.