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Silibwet vs Vihiga Bullets — Super League 2018

Silibwet
Silibwet
FT
0 – 1
Vihiga Bullets
Vihiga Bullets
2/18/2024Super LeagueSuper League · Round 20Silibwet Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Silibwet42%
×Draw27%
Vihiga Bullets31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Silibwet
1.39
Vihiga Bullets
1.16

Silibwet creates 20% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 19 away

creates per match

Silibwet
1.10
Vihiga Bullets
0.84

allows per match

Silibwet
1.48
Vihiga Bullets
1.68

finishing

Silibwet+0.00on par
Vihiga Bullets+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Silibwet ↓

Vihiga Bullets →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Silibwet or draw
69%
Silibwet or Vihiga Bullets
73%
Draw or Vihiga Bullets
58%

Winning margin

Silibwet wins by 2+
20%
Vihiga Bullets wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Silibwet 1+ goals
75%
Silibwet 2+ goals
40%
Silibwet 3+ goals
16%
Vihiga Bullets 1+ goals
69%
Vihiga Bullets 2+ goals
32%
Vihiga Bullets 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Silibwet (draw refunded)
57%
Vihiga Bullets (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Silibwet at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.48 · 52 matches

Vihiga Bullets away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.68 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Silibwet attack 1.10 + Vihiga Bullets defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.39

Vihiga Bullets attack 0.84 + Silibwet defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Silibwet scores more
42%
level
27%
Vihiga Bullets scores more
31%

Silibwet at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Silibwet will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Silibwet 0–1 Vihiga Bullets

Vihiga Bullets beat Silibwet 1-0 in Super League on February 18, 2024.

The match was played at Silibwet Stadium in Silibwet.