Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Silibwet vs Mulembe United — Super League 2018

Silibwet
Silibwet
FT
1 – 2
Mulembe United
Mulembe United
5/26/2024Super LeagueSuper League · Round 33Silibwet Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Silibwet41%
×Draw27%
Mulembe United32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Silibwet
1.33
Mulembe United
1.13

Silibwet creates 18% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 36 away

creates per match

Silibwet
1.10
Mulembe United
0.78

allows per match

Silibwet
1.48
Mulembe United
1.56

finishing

Silibwet+0.00on par
Mulembe United+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Silibwet ↓

Mulembe United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Silibwet or draw
68%
Silibwet or Mulembe United
73%
Draw or Mulembe United
59%

Winning margin

Silibwet wins by 2+
19%
Mulembe United wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Silibwet 1+ goals
74%
Silibwet 2+ goals
38%
Silibwet 3+ goals
15%
Mulembe United 1+ goals
68%
Mulembe United 2+ goals
31%
Mulembe United 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Silibwet (draw refunded)
57%
Mulembe United (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Silibwet at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.48 · 52 matches

Mulembe United away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.56 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Silibwet attack 1.10 + Mulembe United defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.33

Mulembe United attack 0.78 + Silibwet defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Silibwet scores more
41%
level
27%
Mulembe United scores more
32%

Silibwet at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Silibwet will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Silibwet vs Mulembe United

Mulembe United beat Silibwet 2-1 in Super League on May 26, 2024.

The match was played at Silibwet Stadium in Silibwet.