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Silibwet vs Muhoroni Youth — Super League 2018

Silibwet
Silibwet
FT
1 – 2
Muhoroni Youth
Muhoroni Youth
2/9/2022Super LeagueSuper League · Round 11Silibwet Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Silibwet38%
×Draw28%
Muhoroni Youth34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Silibwet
1.24
Muhoroni Youth
1.16

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 52 home / 32 away

creates per match

Silibwet
1.10
Muhoroni Youth
0.84

allows per match

Silibwet
1.48
Muhoroni Youth
1.38

finishing

Silibwet+0.00on par
Muhoroni Youth+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Silibwet ↓

Muhoroni Youth →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Silibwet or draw
66%
Silibwet or Muhoroni Youth
72%
Draw or Muhoroni Youth
62%

Winning margin

Silibwet wins by 2+
17%
Muhoroni Youth wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Silibwet 1+ goals
71%
Silibwet 2+ goals
35%
Silibwet 3+ goals
13%
Muhoroni Youth 1+ goals
69%
Muhoroni Youth 2+ goals
32%
Muhoroni Youth 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Silibwet (draw refunded)
53%
Muhoroni Youth (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Silibwet at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.48 · 52 matches

Muhoroni Youth away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.38 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Silibwet attack 1.10 + Muhoroni Youth defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.24

Muhoroni Youth attack 0.84 + Silibwet defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Silibwet scores more
38%
level
28%
Muhoroni Youth scores more
34%

Silibwet at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Silibwet will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Silibwet 1–2 Muhoroni Youth

Muhoroni Youth beat Silibwet 2-1 in Super League on February 9, 2022.

The match was played at Silibwet Stadium in Silibwet.