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Silibwet vs Migori Youth — Super League 2018

Silibwet
Silibwet
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Migori Youth
Migori Youth
12/14/2022Super LeagueSuper League · Round 4Bomet Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Silibwet36%
×Draw28%
Migori Youth37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Silibwet
1.18
Migori Youth
1.20

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 52 home / 91 away

creates per match

Silibwet
1.10
Migori Youth
0.91

allows per match

Silibwet
1.48
Migori Youth
1.25

finishing

Silibwet+0.00on par
Migori Youth+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Silibwet ↓

Migori Youth →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Silibwet or draw
63%
Silibwet or Migori Youth
72%
Draw or Migori Youth
64%

Winning margin

Silibwet wins by 2+
15%
Migori Youth wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Silibwet 1+ goals
69%
Silibwet 2+ goals
33%
Silibwet 3+ goals
12%
Migori Youth 1+ goals
70%
Migori Youth 2+ goals
34%
Migori Youth 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Silibwet (draw refunded)
49%
Migori Youth (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Silibwet at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.48 · 52 matches

Migori Youth away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.25 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Silibwet attack 1.10 + Migori Youth defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.18

Migori Youth attack 0.91 + Silibwet defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Silibwet scores more
36%
level
28%
Migori Youth scores more
37%

Migori Youth at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Migori Youth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Silibwet 1–2 Migori Youth

Migori Youth beat Silibwet 2-1 in Super League on December 14, 2022.

The match was played at Bomet Stadium in Bomet.