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Silibwet vs Kibera Black Stars — Super League 2018

Silibwet
Silibwet
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Kibera Black Stars
Kibera Black Stars
7/24/2022Super LeagueSuper League · Round 38Silibwet Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Silibwet36%
×Draw28%
Kibera Black Stars36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Silibwet
1.21
Kibera Black Stars
1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 52 home / 110 away

creates per match

Silibwet
1.10
Kibera Black Stars
0.95

allows per match

Silibwet
1.48
Kibera Black Stars
1.31

finishing

Silibwet+0.00on par
Kibera Black Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Silibwet ↓

Kibera Black Stars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Silibwet or draw
64%
Silibwet or Kibera Black Stars
72%
Draw or Kibera Black Stars
64%

Winning margin

Silibwet wins by 2+
15%
Kibera Black Stars wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Silibwet 1+ goals
70%
Silibwet 2+ goals
34%
Silibwet 3+ goals
12%
Kibera Black Stars 1+ goals
70%
Kibera Black Stars 2+ goals
34%
Kibera Black Stars 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Silibwet (draw refunded)
50%
Kibera Black Stars (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Silibwet at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.48 · 52 matches

Kibera Black Stars away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.31 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Silibwet attack 1.10 + Kibera Black Stars defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.21

Kibera Black Stars attack 0.95 + Silibwet defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Silibwet scores more
36%
level
28%
Kibera Black Stars scores more
36%

Silibwet at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Silibwet will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Silibwet 2–2 Kibera Black Stars

Silibwet and Kibera Black Stars drew 2-2 in Super League on July 24, 2022.

The match was played at Silibwet Stadium in Silibwet.