Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Silibwet vs Dimba Patriots — Super League 2018

Silibwet
Silibwet
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Dimba Patriots
Dimba Patriots
10/22/2023Super LeagueSuper League · Round 6Silibwet Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Silibwet38%
×Draw29%
Dimba Patriots34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Silibwet
1.15
Dimba Patriots
1.07

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 52 home / 27 away

creates per match

Silibwet
1.10
Dimba Patriots
0.67

allows per match

Silibwet
1.48
Dimba Patriots
1.19

finishing

Silibwet+0.00on par
Dimba Patriots+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Silibwet ↓

Dimba Patriots →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Silibwet or draw
66%
Silibwet or Dimba Patriots
71%
Draw or Dimba Patriots
62%

Winning margin

Silibwet wins by 2+
16%
Dimba Patriots wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Silibwet 1+ goals
68%
Silibwet 2+ goals
32%
Silibwet 3+ goals
11%
Dimba Patriots 1+ goals
66%
Dimba Patriots 2+ goals
29%
Dimba Patriots 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Silibwet (draw refunded)
53%
Dimba Patriots (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Silibwet at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.48 · 52 matches

Dimba Patriots away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.19 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Silibwet attack 1.10 + Dimba Patriots defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.15

Dimba Patriots attack 0.67 + Silibwet defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Silibwet scores more
38%
level
29%
Dimba Patriots scores more
34%

Silibwet at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Silibwet will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Silibwet vs Dimba Patriots

Silibwet beat Dimba Patriots 2-1 in Super League on October 22, 2023.

The match was played at Silibwet Stadium in Silibwet.