Silibwet 2–0 Darajani Gogo: Result & Stats

Silibwet

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Darajani Gogo

4/23/2023

Super League · Round 24Bomet Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Silibwet37%

×Draw28%

Darajani Gogo35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SilibwetExpected goals in this matchDarajani Gogo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.15

Silibwet

1.19

Darajani Gogo

1.15

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 52 home / 72 away

1.10

creates per match

0.82

1.48

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

Silibwet

1.10

Darajani Gogo

0.82

allows per match

Silibwet

1.48

Darajani Gogo

1.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Silibwet+0.00on par

Darajani Gogo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Silibwet ↓

Darajani Gogo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Silibwet or draw

65%

Silibwet or Darajani Gogo

72%

Draw or Darajani Gogo

63%

Winning margin

Silibwet wins by 2+

16%

Darajani Gogo wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Silibwet 1+ goals

70%

Silibwet 2+ goals

33%

Silibwet 3+ goals

12%

Darajani Gogo 1+ goals

68%

Darajani Gogo 2+ goals

32%

Darajani Gogo 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Silibwet (draw refunded)

51%

Darajani Gogo (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Silibwet at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.48 · 52 matches

Darajani Gogo away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.28 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Silibwet attack 1.10 + Darajani Gogo defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.19

Darajani Gogo attack 0.82 + Silibwet defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Silibwet scores more

37%

level

28%

Darajani Gogo scores more

35%

Silibwet at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Silibwet will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff