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Silibwet vs Coastal Heroes — Super League 2018

Silibwet
Silibwet
FT
2 – 2
Coastal Heroes
Coastal Heroes
1/20/2024Super LeagueSuper League · Round 17Silibwet Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Silibwet48%
×Draw25%
Coastal Heroes27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Silibwet
1.60
Coastal Heroes
1.15

Silibwet creates 39% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 72 away

creates per match

Silibwet
1.10
Coastal Heroes
0.81

allows per match

Silibwet
1.48
Coastal Heroes
2.11

finishing

Silibwet+0.00on par
Coastal Heroes+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Silibwet ↓

Coastal Heroes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Silibwet or draw
73%
Silibwet or Coastal Heroes
75%
Draw or Coastal Heroes
52%

Winning margin

Silibwet wins by 2+
25%
Coastal Heroes wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Silibwet 1+ goals
80%
Silibwet 2+ goals
47%
Silibwet 3+ goals
22%
Coastal Heroes 1+ goals
68%
Coastal Heroes 2+ goals
32%
Coastal Heroes 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Silibwet (draw refunded)
64%
Coastal Heroes (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Silibwet at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.48 · 52 matches

Coastal Heroes away — creates 0.81, concedes 2.11 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Silibwet attack 1.10 + Coastal Heroes defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.60

Coastal Heroes attack 0.81 + Silibwet defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Silibwet scores more
48%
level
25%
Coastal Heroes scores more
27%

Silibwet at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Silibwet will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Silibwet vs Coastal Heroes

Silibwet and Coastal Heroes drew 2-2 in Super League on January 20, 2024.

The match was played at Silibwet Stadium in Silibwet.