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Silibwet vs APS Bomet — Super League 2018

Silibwet
Silibwet
FT
1 – 2
APS Bomet
APS Bomet
1/8/2022Super LeagueSuper League · Round 10Bomet Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Silibwet29%
×Draw29%
APS Bomet42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Silibwet
0.94
APS Bomet
1.20

APS Bomet creates 28% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 39 away

creates per match

Silibwet
1.10
APS Bomet
0.92

allows per match

Silibwet
1.48
APS Bomet
0.77

finishing

Silibwet+0.00on par
APS Bomet+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Silibwet ↓

APS Bomet →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–114%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Silibwet or draw
58%
Silibwet or APS Bomet
71%
Draw or APS Bomet
71%

Winning margin

Silibwet wins by 2+
10%
APS Bomet wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Silibwet 1+ goals
61%
Silibwet 2+ goals
24%
Silibwet 3+ goals
7%
APS Bomet 1+ goals
70%
APS Bomet 2+ goals
34%
APS Bomet 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Silibwet (draw refunded)
41%
APS Bomet (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Silibwet at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.48 · 52 matches

APS Bomet away — creates 0.92, concedes 0.77 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Silibwet attack 1.10 + APS Bomet defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.94

APS Bomet attack 0.92 + Silibwet defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Silibwet scores more
29%
level
29%
APS Bomet scores more
42%

APS Bomet at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "APS Bomet will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Silibwet 1–2 APS Bomet

APS Bomet beat Silibwet 2-1 in Super League on January 8, 2022.

The match was played at Bomet Stadium in Bomet.