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Sileks vs Voska Sport — First League 2019

Sileks
Sileks
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Voska Sport
Voska Sport
11/27/2024First LeagueFirst League · Round 16Gradski stadion Kratovo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Sileks57%
×Draw24%
Voska Sport20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sileks
1.72
Voska Sport
0.90

Sileks creates 91% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 33 away

creates per match

Sileks
1.61
Voska Sport
0.88

allows per match

Sileks
0.92
Voska Sport
1.82

finishing

Sileks+0.00on par
Voska Sport+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sileks ↓

Voska Sport →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Sileks or draw
80%
Sileks or Voska Sport
76%
Draw or Voska Sport
43%

Winning margin

Sileks wins by 2+
32%
Voska Sport wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Sileks 1+ goals
82%
Sileks 2+ goals
51%
Sileks 3+ goals
25%
Voska Sport 1+ goals
59%
Voska Sport 2+ goals
23%
Voska Sport 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Sileks (draw refunded)
74%
Voska Sport (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sileks at home — creates 1.61, concedes 0.92 · 93 matches

Voska Sport away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.82 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sileks attack 1.61 + Voska Sport defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.72

Voska Sport attack 0.88 + Sileks defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Sileks scores more
57%
level
24%
Voska Sport scores more
20%

Sileks at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Sileks will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Sileks 4–1 Voska Sport

Sileks beat Voska Sport 4-1 in First League on November 27, 2024.

The match was played at Gradski stadion Kratovo in Kratovo.