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Sileks vs Shkupi 1927 — First League 2019

Sileks
Sileks
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Shkupi 1927
Shkupi 1927
11/12/2023First LeagueFirst League · Round 14Gradski stadion Kratovo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Sileks52%
×Draw25%
Shkupi 192723%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sileks
1.60
Shkupi 1927
0.98

Sileks creates 63% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 106 away

creates per match

Sileks
1.61
Shkupi 1927
1.04

allows per match

Sileks
0.92
Shkupi 1927
1.58

finishing

Sileks+0.00on par
Shkupi 1927+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sileks ↓

Shkupi 1927 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Sileks or draw
77%
Sileks or Shkupi 1927
75%
Draw or Shkupi 1927
48%

Winning margin

Sileks wins by 2+
27%
Shkupi 1927 wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Sileks 1+ goals
80%
Sileks 2+ goals
47%
Sileks 3+ goals
22%
Shkupi 1927 1+ goals
62%
Shkupi 1927 2+ goals
26%
Shkupi 1927 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Sileks (draw refunded)
69%
Shkupi 1927 (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sileks at home — creates 1.61, concedes 0.92 · 93 matches

Shkupi 1927 away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.58 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sileks attack 1.61 + Shkupi 1927 defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.60

Shkupi 1927 attack 1.04 + Sileks defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Sileks scores more
52%
level
25%
Shkupi 1927 scores more
23%

Sileks at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Sileks will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Sileks 2–1 Shkupi 1927

Sileks beat Shkupi 1927 2-1 in First League on November 12, 2023.

The match was played at Gradski stadion Kratovo in Kratovo.