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Shkupi 1927 vs Sileks — First League 2019

Shkupi 1927
Shkupi 1927
AWD
0 – 3
Sileks
Sileks
8/17/2025First LeagueFirst League · Round 2Stadion Cair

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Shkupi 192743%
×Draw26%
Sileks31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shkupi 1927
1.46
Sileks
1.21

Shkupi 1927 creates 21% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 91 away

creates per match

Shkupi 1927
1.71
Sileks
1.24

allows per match

Shkupi 1927
1.17
Sileks
1.20

finishing

Shkupi 1927+0.00on par
Sileks+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shkupi 1927 ↓

Sileks →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Shkupi 1927 or draw
69%
Shkupi 1927 or Sileks
74%
Draw or Sileks
57%

Winning margin

Shkupi 1927 wins by 2+
21%
Sileks wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Shkupi 1927 1+ goals
77%
Shkupi 1927 2+ goals
43%
Shkupi 1927 3+ goals
18%
Sileks 1+ goals
70%
Sileks 2+ goals
34%
Sileks 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Shkupi 1927 (draw refunded)
58%
Sileks (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shkupi 1927 at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.17 · 110 matches

Sileks away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.20 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shkupi 1927 attack 1.71 + Sileks defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.46

Sileks attack 1.24 + Shkupi 1927 defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Shkupi 1927 scores more
43%
level
26%
Sileks scores more
31%

Shkupi 1927 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Shkupi 1927 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Shkupi 1927 face Sileks (First League)

First League returns with Shkupi 1927 hosting Sileks. Match starts August 17, 2025. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Shkupi 1927 host Sileks at Stadion Cair.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.