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Sileks vs Ballkani — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Sileks
Sileks
FT
4 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Ballkani
Ballkani
7/2/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Sileks63%
×Draw22%
Ballkani15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sileks
1.83
Ballkani
0.75

Sileks creates 144% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 4 away

creates per match

Sileks
1.67
Ballkani
0.50

allows per match

Sileks
1.00
Ballkani
2.00

finishing

Sileks+0.00on par
Ballkani+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sileks ↓

Ballkani →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Sileks or draw
85%
Sileks or Ballkani
78%
Draw or Ballkani
37%

Winning margin

Sileks wins by 2+
37%
Ballkani wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Sileks 1+ goals
84%
Sileks 2+ goals
54%
Sileks 3+ goals
28%
Ballkani 1+ goals
53%
Ballkani 2+ goals
17%
Ballkani 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Sileks (draw refunded)
81%
Ballkani (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sileks at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

Ballkani away — creates 0.50, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sileks attack 1.67 + Ballkani defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.83

Ballkani attack 0.50 + Sileks defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Sileks scores more
63%
level
22%
Ballkani scores more
15%

Sileks at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Sileks will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Sileks
Ballkani
Aleksandar Vasoski
Manager: Aleksandar Vasoski
Orges Shehi
Manager: Orges Shehi

Match Recap: Sileks vs Ballkani

Sileks beat Ballkani 4-0 in Friendlies Clubs on July 2, 2026.