Şile Yıldızspor 1–1 Karacabey Belediyespor

Şile Yıldızspor

AET

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Karacabey Belediyespor

9/11/2019

Türkiye Kupası · 2nd RoundŞile Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Şile Yıldızspor38%

×Draw20%

Karacabey Belediyespor42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Şile YıldızsporExpected goals in this matchKaracabey Belediyespor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.17

2.27

Şile Yıldızspor

2.17

Karacabey Belediyespor

2.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 3 home / 8 away

3.33

creates per match

1.88

2.67

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Şile Yıldızspor

3.33

Karacabey Belediyespor

1.88

allows per match

Şile Yıldızspor

2.67

Karacabey Belediyespor

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Şile Yıldızspor+0.00on par

Karacabey Belediyespor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over82
Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes79
No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Şile Yıldızspor ↓

Karacabey Belediyespor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–03%

1–16%

1–27%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–36%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–15%

3–25%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

82%18%3.5

64%36%4.5

45%55%

Double chance

Şile Yıldızspor or draw

58%

Şile Yıldızspor or Karacabey Belediyespor

80%

Draw or Karacabey Belediyespor

62%

Winning margin

Şile Yıldızspor wins by 2+

21%

Karacabey Belediyespor wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Şile Yıldızspor 1+ goals

89%

Şile Yıldızspor 2+ goals

64%

Şile Yıldızspor 3+ goals

36%

Karacabey Belediyespor 1+ goals

90%

Karacabey Belediyespor 2+ goals

66%

Karacabey Belediyespor 3+ goals

39%

Draw no bet

Şile Yıldızspor (draw refunded)

48%

Karacabey Belediyespor (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

73%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Şile Yıldızspor at home — creates 3.33, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

Karacabey Belediyespor away — creates 1.88, concedes 1.00 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Şile Yıldızspor attack 3.33 + Karacabey Belediyespor defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 2.17

Karacabey Belediyespor attack 1.88 + Şile Yıldızspor defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Şile Yıldızspor scores more

38%

level

20%

Karacabey Belediyespor scores more

42%

Karacabey Belediyespor at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Karacabey Belediyespor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff