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Şile Yıldızspor vs Darıca Gençlerbirliği — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Şile Yıldızspor
Şile Yıldızspor
AET
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Darıca Gençlerbirliği
Darıca Gençlerbirliği
9/14/2022Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 1st RoundŞile Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Şile Yıldızspor47%
×Draw19%
Darıca Gençlerbirliği33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Şile Yıldızspor
2.48
Darıca Gençlerbirliği
2.08

Şile Yıldızspor creates 19% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 8 away

creates per match

Şile Yıldızspor
3.33
Darıca Gençlerbirliği
1.50

allows per match

Şile Yıldızspor
2.67
Darıca Gençlerbirliği
1.63

finishing

Şile Yıldızspor+0.00on par
Darıca Gençlerbirliği+0.00on par

Total goals

83%Over
  • Over83
  • Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

80%Yes
  • Yes80
  • No20

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Şile Yıldızspor ↓

Darıca Gençlerbirliği →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–24%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
83%17%3.5
66%34%4.5
47%53%

Double chance

Şile Yıldızspor or draw
67%
Şile Yıldızspor or Darıca Gençlerbirliği
81%
Draw or Darıca Gençlerbirliği
53%

Winning margin

Şile Yıldızspor wins by 2+
29%
Darıca Gençlerbirliği wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Şile Yıldızspor 1+ goals
92%
Şile Yıldızspor 2+ goals
70%
Şile Yıldızspor 3+ goals
44%
Darıca Gençlerbirliği 1+ goals
87%
Darıca Gençlerbirliği 2+ goals
61%
Darıca Gençlerbirliği 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Şile Yıldızspor (draw refunded)
59%
Darıca Gençlerbirliği (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
75%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Şile Yıldızspor at home — creates 3.33, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

Darıca Gençlerbirliği away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.63 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Şile Yıldızspor attack 3.33 + Darıca Gençlerbirliği defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 2.48

Darıca Gençlerbirliği attack 1.50 + Şile Yıldızspor defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Şile Yıldızspor scores more
47%
level
19%
Darıca Gençlerbirliği scores more
33%

Şile Yıldızspor at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Şile Yıldızspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Türkiye Kupası: Şile Yıldızspor 1–1 Darıca Gençlerbirliği

Şile Yıldızspor and Darıca Gençlerbirliği drew 1-1 in Türkiye Kupası on September 14, 2022.

The match was played at Şile Stadı in Şile.