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Şile Yıldızspor vs Boluspor — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Şile Yıldızspor
Şile Yıldızspor
FT
2 – 5
HT: 2 – 5
Boluspor
Boluspor
10/31/2018Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 4th RoundŞile Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Şile Yıldızspor53%
×Draw19%
Boluspor28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Şile Yıldızspor
2.53
Boluspor
1.83

Şile Yıldızspor creates 38% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 11 away

creates per match

Şile Yıldızspor
3.33
Boluspor
1.00

allows per match

Şile Yıldızspor
2.67
Boluspor
1.73

finishing

Şile Yıldızspor+0.00on par
Boluspor+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Over
  • Over81
  • Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Şile Yıldızspor ↓

Boluspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–26%
1–33%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
81%19%3.5
63%37%4.5
43%57%

Double chance

Şile Yıldızspor or draw
72%
Şile Yıldızspor or Boluspor
81%
Draw or Boluspor
47%

Winning margin

Şile Yıldızspor wins by 2+
33%
Boluspor wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Şile Yıldızspor 1+ goals
92%
Şile Yıldızspor 2+ goals
71%
Şile Yıldızspor 3+ goals
46%
Boluspor 1+ goals
84%
Boluspor 2+ goals
54%
Boluspor 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Şile Yıldızspor (draw refunded)
65%
Boluspor (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
71%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Şile Yıldızspor at home — creates 3.33, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

Boluspor away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.73 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Şile Yıldızspor attack 3.33 + Boluspor defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 2.53

Boluspor attack 1.00 + Şile Yıldızspor defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Şile Yıldızspor scores more
53%
level
19%
Boluspor scores more
28%

Şile Yıldızspor at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Şile Yıldızspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Türkiye Kupası: Şile Yıldızspor 2–5 Boluspor

Boluspor beat Şile Yıldızspor 5-2 in Türkiye Kupası on October 31, 2018.

The match was played at Şile Stadı in Şile.