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Šilas vs Žalgiris II — 1 Lyga 2026

Šilas
Šilas
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Žalgiris II
Žalgiris II
9/30/20221 Lyga1 Lyga · Round 24Sūduvos stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Šilas51%
×Draw22%
Žalgiris II28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Šilas
2.02
Žalgiris II
1.45

Šilas creates 39% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 88 away

creates per match

Šilas
1.89
Žalgiris II
1.55

allows per match

Šilas
1.34
Žalgiris II
2.16

finishing

Šilas+0.00on par
Žalgiris II+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Šilas ↓

Žalgiris II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Šilas or draw
72%
Šilas or Žalgiris II
78%
Draw or Žalgiris II
49%

Winning margin

Šilas wins by 2+
29%
Žalgiris II wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Šilas 1+ goals
87%
Šilas 2+ goals
60%
Šilas 3+ goals
33%
Žalgiris II 1+ goals
77%
Žalgiris II 2+ goals
42%
Žalgiris II 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Šilas (draw refunded)
65%
Žalgiris II (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Šilas at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.34 · 38 matches

Žalgiris II away — creates 1.55, concedes 2.16 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Šilas attack 1.89 + Žalgiris II defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 2.02

Žalgiris II attack 1.55 + Šilas defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Šilas scores more
51%
level
22%
Žalgiris II scores more
28%

Šilas at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Šilas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Šilas vs Žalgiris II

Šilas beat Žalgiris II 2-0 in 1 Lyga on September 30, 2022.

The match was played at Sūduvos stadionas in Marijampolė.