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Šilas vs TransINVEST Vilnius — 1 Lyga 2026

Šilas
Šilas
CANC
12:00
TransINVEST Vilnius
TransINVEST Vilnius
10/28/20231 Lyga1 Lyga · Round 28Sūduvos stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Šilas27%
×Draw21%
TransINVEST Vilnius52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Šilas
1.46
TransINVEST Vilnius
2.10

TransINVEST Vilnius creates 44% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 29 away

creates per match

Šilas
1.89
TransINVEST Vilnius
2.86

allows per match

Šilas
1.34
TransINVEST Vilnius
1.03

finishing

Šilas+0.00on par
TransINVEST Vilnius+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Šilas ↓

TransINVEST Vilnius →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Šilas or draw
48%
Šilas or TransINVEST Vilnius
79%
Draw or TransINVEST Vilnius
73%

Winning margin

Šilas wins by 2+
12%
TransINVEST Vilnius wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Šilas 1+ goals
77%
Šilas 2+ goals
43%
Šilas 3+ goals
18%
TransINVEST Vilnius 1+ goals
88%
TransINVEST Vilnius 2+ goals
62%
TransINVEST Vilnius 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

Šilas (draw refunded)
34%
TransINVEST Vilnius (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Šilas at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.34 · 38 matches

TransINVEST Vilnius away — creates 2.86, concedes 1.03 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Šilas attack 1.89 + TransINVEST Vilnius defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.46

TransINVEST Vilnius attack 2.86 + Šilas defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 2.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Šilas scores more
27%
level
21%
TransINVEST Vilnius scores more
52%

TransINVEST Vilnius at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "TransINVEST Vilnius will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Šilas face TransINVEST Vilnius (1 Lyga)

1 Lyga returns with Šilas hosting TransINVEST Vilnius. Match starts October 28, 2023. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Šilas host TransINVEST Vilnius at Sūduvos stadionas.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.